ETHIOPIA: FINE LINE BETWEEN MEDIATED SOLUTION AND FULL-SCALE CONFLICT

   Thu, 12 August 2021

The nine-month-old Ethiopian civil war will reach a new stage in coming weeks, as federal troops and regional allies recruit civilians to mount a counteroffensive against advancing Tigrayan forces. Meanwhile, Tigray and other insurgent groups are seeking to strengthen their negotiating position ahead of any eventual mediations that have been waylaid by deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Sudan. Yet, global powers may still withhold a new IMF programme and a deal on debt restructuring to pressure the federal government into a mediated solution to the conflict.