ETHIOPIA: THE NEXT PHASE OF THE TIGRAY CONFLICT

   Tue, 06 July 2021

Tigrayan rebels have seized the upper hand, while the humiliated Ethiopian federal government and military is on the backfoot. Tigray’s political wing may agree to a negotiated ceasefire on its own terms. However, if such terms are not met, Tigray could secede from the Ethiopian federation and even march on Addis Ababa. Tigrayan cross-border incursions into Eritrea, Sudan, and other Ethiopian regions are highly likely in coming months. Perhaps of greatest consequence is that Ethiopia now looks even more weakened and isolated as a regional dispute over the Blue Nile dam intensifies this month.

Pangea-Risk Insight is a specialist intelligence membership platform that delivers accurate, decision-ready, and commercially relevant forecasts and analysis on political, security, and economic risk in Africa and the Middle East to a wide-ranging spread of client sectors.

All country risk analysis is supported by local source intelligence and driven by proprietary risk methodology presented on a cost-effective, centralised, and user-friendly platform.