Nigeria’s next president, Bola Tinubu, will begin his first term in office this month facing a range of mounting economic and security challenges, many of which require urgent policy action. However, given the contention around the February 2023 election result, it remains likely that Tinubu’s reform efforts will meet with substantial resistance. In view of Nigeria’s current economic situation, there is a heightened risk of civil unrest in the coming months, particularly if the incoming administration implements controversial policies, such as the long-anticipated removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate reform. The World Bank may withhold funding if the fuel subsidy is not phased out, even while a long-anticipated naira devaluation is set to be delayed.

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