Based on quantitative analysis, large external borrowers Ghana, Kenya, and Ethiopia are most likely to default on their Eurobond repayments in the five-year outlook. In total, Africa needs to make USD 21.5 billion in external bond repayments over that period, while debt servicing costs are rising unsustainably. PANGEA-RISK assesses key indicators, including debt servicing and international bond maturities, to forecast Africa’s sovereign debt default risks over the next five years.

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