TOP RISKS FOR JULY 2021

   Thu, 01 July 2021

The coming month will see a heightened threat of terrorism and armed violence in eastern DRC, northern Ivory Coast, and the Sahel region, while a surge in abductions of foreign nationals points to an increase in the threat of criminal kidnap-for-ransom in southern Nigeria. Ethiopia’s Tigray region is likely to see further heavy fighting in the coming weeks amidst a major shift in the conflict. Recent violent protests in Eswatini’s ruling monarchy are likely to continue, while a renewed COVID-19 lockdown in South Africa will drive the threat of civil unrest. Demonstrations are also likely in Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Zambia. In the Middle East and North Africa, worsening socio-economic conditions and ongoing power shortages will drive protests in Lebanon and Iraq, while the threat of civil unrest remains elevated in Tunisia, Egypt, and Turkey amidst ongoing calls for protests over a range of political and social issues.

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