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PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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JAPAN SEEKS TO DEEPEN ECONOMIC TIES WITH AFRICA

27 August 2025

GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT BOOSTS CREDIT AND POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE MARKET

20 August 2025

IRAN-ISRAEL HOSTILITIES THREATEN ASIA’S ENERGY SECURITY

13 August 2025

TRUMP TARIFFS: ASIAN ECONOMIES COUNT THE COST

07 August 2025

MOZAMBIQUE: TOTALENERGIES’ MOZAMBIQUE LNG PROJECT SET TO RESTART

18 July 2025

RUSSIA CENTRALISES MILITARY PRESENCE THROUGH AFRICA CORPS

10 July 2025

RWANDA AND DRC SIGN US-BROKERED PEACE DEAL

02 July 2025

OIL PRICE VOLATILITY REDEFINES EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN CREDIT RISKS

19 June 2025

SAHELIAN STATES COURT NEW PARTNERS, BUT SOVEREIGNTY AGENDA FACES INSTITUTIONAL HURDLES

13 June 2025

NORTH AFRICA TRAVEL ENVIRONMENT STABLE DESPITE LOCALISED RISKS AND SECURITY CONTROLS

05 June 2025

EAST AFRICA TRADE BOLSTERED BY INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION AND DIGITISATION

14 May 2025

RESOURCE-RICH STATES USE MINERALS FOR DIPLOMATIC LEVERAGE AMID GREAT POWER RIVALRY

08 May 2025

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks

MONTHLY INSIGHT - AUGUST 2025

Thu, 28 August 2025

In August, Pangea-Risk expanded coverage of our flagship Insight platform to Southeast Asia and China, extending country risk analysis to 100 Emerging and Frontier Markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. This exciting development supports our mission to foster South-South collaboration in trade and investment, while mitigating risks in these fast-growing markets. Our analysis and forecasting capabilities focus on the nexus that interconnects some of the world’s most resilient and buoyant economies. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock special reports on Southeast Asia’s demographic dividend and on the resilience of the credit and political risk insurance market amid global challenges and trade volatility.


SPECIAL REPORT: SOUTHEAST ASIAN YOUTH DRIVE GROWTH AND INNOVATION AMID STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES

Tue, 26 August 2025

Southeast Asia’s youth are both the engine and the uncertainty of its future. Their demographic weight has fuelled expanding middle classes and rising productivity, but youth unemployment and high levels of informal sector employment risk undermining this momentum. These pressures, compounded by trade disruptions, are already shaping political dynamics and investor sentiment across the region. At the same time, a generation of entrepreneurs is building fintech, blockchain, and AI solutions that anchor Southeast Asia’s technological rise. This energy should translate into sustained growth if governments and businesses can convert the potential of youth into opportunity.


SPECIAL REPORT: GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT BOOSTS CREDIT AND POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE MARKET

Tue, 19 August 2025

The global trade credit and political risk insurance market has remained remarkably upbeat on the back of the realignment of supply chains and shifting trading relations in response to US tariffs. Counterparty risk mitigation has become a C-suite conversation in corporates and banks alike, driving opportunity for the insurance market. Trade protectionism, volatile energy markets, political upheaval, and rising resource nationalism are reshaping risk profiles across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Insurers are increasingly focusing on project- and sector-specific coverage, while investors must navigate shifting regulatory frameworks and evolving trade barriers.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JULY 2025

Thu, 31 July 2025

In a series of frantic meetings in July spanning from Washington DC to Stockholm in Sweden and Ayrshire in Scotland, the world’s largest trade partners managed to avoid a global trade war. The new normal for United States (US) tariffs on foreign goods starts at 15 percent based on deals with Japan and the European Union. Many emerging markets that have not concluded a deal before the 1 August deadline could face tariffs of up to 50 percent. Foreign companies have so far been absorbing the cost of trade with the US, but many firms have now begun raising prices on their US-bound goods. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the impact of US tariffs on emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. We also unlock a briefing on the resurgence of Red Sea shipping risks with further consequences for global trade and supply chains. And from August, Pangea-Risk expands country risk forecasting to Southeast Asia and China, extending our coverage to a total of 100 Emerging and Frontier Markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East!


YEMEN: HOUTHIS RE-ENGAGE IN MARITIME ATTACKS AS RIVALS FRAGMENT AND EXTERNAL PRESSURE STALLS

Tue, 15 July 2025

The Houthis have resumed missile strikes on Israeli-linked maritime assets after a temporary halt, exploiting ambiguity within their ceasefire framework with the US. Concurrently, the Houthis have deepened logistical cooperation with Al Shabaab, leveraging Somali-controlled coastal corridors to circumvent interdiction efforts and expand drone capabilities. Domestically, the suspension of US air operations has facilitated Houthi consolidation in northern Yemen, enabled reconstruction of logistical hubs, while exposing structural dysfunction within the anti-Houthi bloc.


SPECIAL REPORT: TRUMP’S TARIFF DEADLINE LOOMS: WHAT STAKEHOLDERS IN EMERGING MARKETS NEED TO KNOW

Tue, 08 July 2025

As the newly announced 1 August deadline for Trump’s reciprocal tariff regime approaches, uncertainty looms for global trade. While some major economies have secured partial deals, many emerging markets face escalating tariffs with little recourse. This special report examines the ripple effects across supply chains, strategic sectors, and commodity diplomacy. From shifting trade alliances to critical minerals as bargaining tools, this special report explores how governments and businesses must recalibrate strategies to navigate a fragmented, transactional, and increasingly volatile trade environment.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JUNE 2025

Thu, 26 June 2025

In June, our team criss-crossed conferences and summits in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East to participate in discussions on trade, investment, and security policy. Apart from the regional impact of the escalating war between Israel and Iran, a recurring theme in such talks has been the long-standing concern over the cost of capital for African financial institutions. In the context of annual meetings of some of Africa’s largest financial institutions in June, a recent credit rating downgrade of one of these organisations, as well as multiple controversial sovereign downgrades in Africa earlier this year, have reignited an important debate in which we at Pangea-Risk are actively participating. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on African debt restructurings and credit rating mechanisms that earlier this month already featured prominently in international media. Separately, and ahead of our wider Asian country risk coverage expansion, we unlock an Insight Briefing on the economic and security outlook of the world’s most populated nation, India.


SPECIAL REPORT: CREDIT RATING AND RESTRUCTURING DISPUTES EXPOSE MISALIGNMENT ON AFRICA DEBT RISKS

Thu, 12 June 2025

The recent credit rating downgrade of Afreximbank, a key Africa-based financial institution, has reignited concerns over elevated borrowing costs on the continent. The downgrade comes against the backdrop of a dispute among international creditors over the inclusion of loans from African multilateral institutions in sovereign restructurings. Renegotiating the terms of these debt instruments could further exacerbate existing perceptions of elevated risk in Africa, driving up sovereign borrowing costs and curtailing access to capital for development projects and trade finance, particularly during times of global economic shocks. In this context, Africa is seeking to launch its own credit ratings agency later in 2025.


INDIA: STRONG GROWTH MASKS INDUSTRIAL WEAKNESSES AND GEOPOLITICAL COMMERCIAL RISKS

Wed, 11 June 2025

India’s strong first-quarter growth masks underlying vulnerabilities, including declining foreign investment and industrial weaknesses. Geopolitical rivalries, particularly involving China and Pakistan, are compounding these challenges, disrupting trade, exposing critical supply chain risks, and complicating airspace access. These frictions also intersect with India’s expanding aviation sector, where rapid growth ambitions are threatened by regulatory gaps and infrastructure shortfalls. Meanwhile, the revocation of Çelebi’s security clearance underscores the growing exposure of foreign firms to political and reputational risks in India’s increasingly nationalist policy environment, where geopolitical alignments may shape some commercial decisions.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - MAY 2025

Thu, 29 May 2025

The US president’s three-state visit to the Gulf in May was underpinned by shifting geopolitical alliances, American protectionism, and incentivisation of foreign investment into the world’s largest economy by cash-flush Gulf monarchies. The resultant flurry of announcements on deals in the energy, aviation & military, and artificial intelligence sectors were intertwined by intensifying global competition for critical minerals. In particular, the US is leveraging the Gulf’s capital and strategic position to secure access to unexplored minerals across frontier and emerging markets in the Global South. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock an Insight Briefing on the mining country of Zambia, where American, Chinese, European, and Emirati stakeholders are tussling over access to some of the world’s most important reserves of such minerals considered critical to their respective economies. Separately, we offer a look into our analysis on May’s three-day conflict in South Asia and the impact on Pakistan’s economy and fiscal outlook.


ZAMBIA: COPPER OUTPUT SURGE BOOSTS GROWTH OUTLOOK AMID LINGERING DEBT CONSTRAINTS

Wed, 14 May 2025

Zambia has recorded a sharp increase in copper output in early 2025, signalling renewed momentum in the mining sector and providing a foundation for an optimistic economic outlook. Foreign investors' interest in the country’s mining sector continues to support Zambia’s economic trajectory. However, the prolonged debt restructuring process continues to strain fiscal space, while the government’s constitutional reform agenda is heightening political competition ahead of the 2026 elections.


PAKISTAN: CROSS-BORDER ESCALATION WITH INDIA TRIGGERS ECONOMIC FALLOUT DESPITE IMF LIFELINE

Tue, 13 May 2025

India’s cross-border strikes in early May triggered the most intense India-Pakistan clashes in decades, halted by a US-brokered ceasefire on 10 May. The escalation rattled investor confidence and disrupted key sectors in Pakistan, including aviation, trade, and financial services, while raising concerns about exacerbating macroeconomic vulnerabilities. One day before the ceasefire, the International Monetary Fund approved USD 2.5 billion in funding to support Pakistan’s fragile recovery. Although the package offers temporary relief, persistent geopolitical frictions, domestic insecurity, and economic fragility continue to weigh on the country’s outlook.


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IN THE NEWS

...
Net zero Britain cosies up to Zimbabwe despite human rights concerns

Monday, 25 August 2025

Senior Africa Analyst Zaynab Hoosen comments to the Telegraph UK improving UK-Zimbabwe bilateral ties in the context of critical minerals access and debt restructuring.

View the original here
...
Will Cote d’Ivoire elections cast shadow over economic outlook?

Wednesday, 13 August 2025

Pangea-Risk CEO Robert Besseling joins CNBC Africa to discuss the country risk outlook for Ivory Coast elections.

View the original here
...
UK Resets Ties With Zimbabwe in Push for Critical Minerals

Friday, 08 August 2025

Senior Africa Analyst Zaynab Hoosen comments on the rekindling of diplomatic ties between the UK and Zimbabwe amid a push to secure critical minerals supply chains.

View the original here

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