Pangea-Risk : Africa & Middle East Forecasting

Pangea-Risk Insight is a specialist intelligence membership platform that delivers accurate, decision-ready, and commercially relevant forecasts and analysis on political, security, and economic risk in Africa and the Middle East to a wide-ranging spread of client sectors.

All country risk analysis is supported by local source intelligence and driven by proprietary risk methodology presented on a cost-effective, centralised, and user-friendly platform.

Insight Coverage

Pangea-Risk Insight is an industry leading online membership platform that provides analysis and forecasts on political, security, and economic risk in 68 countries in Africa and the Middle East. Our proprietary forecasting methodology is driven by local source intelligence, quantitative risk ratings, and artificial intelligence and data dissemination. On the platform, our members can consult frequently updated country risk briefings that are forward-looking, intelligence-driven, and commercially relevant.

Media Monitor

Our members receive a daily selection of commercially relevant news from Africa and the Middle East. Our intelligence centre captures more than 1,000 risk incidents every month from a variety of international and local sources. This intelligence stream forms the basis of our analysis and forecasting methodology, alongside local human source intelligence, sentiment analysis, social media monitoring, and macro trend evaluation.

Insight Briefings

Our members receive daily analysis briefings and special reports, as well as weekly summary, monthly editorial, and quarterly risk rating newsletters. Our team of experienced country risk analysts, researchers, and thematic experts publishes daily analysis on key developments in Africa and the Middle East, delivering actionable and commercially relevant risk forecasts. All analysis briefings are printable and fully downloadable into PDF.

Risk Ratings

Our members have access to a unique risk scoring system based on internationally recognised industry standards for 68 African and Middle East countries. The quarterly updated scores compare individual risk perils for each country representing the political, economic, and security environment over a forecasted one-year outlook. These individual scores form the basis of the overall country risk ratings, which are fully downloadable and can be customised based on members’ needs. Our financial services clients across the world use Pangea-Risk's quantitative data to feed into their business decision processes.

ENTRY-LEVEL MEMBERSHIP FEE FOR 2024/25: USD 3,500

Contact insight@pangea-risk.com or info@pangea-risk.com for corporate packages and multiple memberships.

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

(Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks)

MONTHLY INSIGHT - MARCH 2024

Thu, 28 March 2024

This month, the United Arab Emirates committed to the largest ever investment into Egypt, let alone Africa as a whole. The UAE was already the world’s fourth largest source of foreign direct investment into Africa, and now looks set to challenge China, the EU, and US in those rankings. The emirates may be a so-called “Middle Power” globally, but on the African continent they are fast becoming a force to be reckoned with in terms of trade, security, investment, and debt dynamics. And the UAE is not the only Gulf power boosting its African presence to drive economic diversification at home and geopolitical clout abroad.

SPECIAL REPORT: SENEGAL’S NEW POLITICAL LEADERSHIP DUO FACES ECONOMIC REALITY CHECK

Tue, 26 March 2024

The incoming political duo that will take power in Senegal has promised a radical state interventionist approach to the economy and the renegotiation of energy contracts with foreign investors. However, their political ambitions will be curbed by a lack of political experience and no workable majority in parliament. Senegal’s incoming president has already watered down some of his most drastic pledges on fiscal and monetary policy, as he faces a fiscal tightrope and strict creditor conditionalities. A key indicator for Senegal’s policy and contract stability in its new political era will be determined by the extent to which the leadership duo remains intact, or if fractures will soon start to show between the two men.

EGYPT: MASSIVE UAE INVESTMENT BOLSTERS FOREX RESERVES AND CATALYSES ENLARGED IMF DEAL

Wed, 06 March 2024

The Egyptian government sealed its largest ever investment deal, valued at USD 35 billion, with an Emirati sovereign fund to develop the Ras El Hekma city. The agreement will bolster the country’s foreign exchange reserves and ensure adequate buffers for Egyptian authorities to devalue the pound and at least move to a more flexible exchange rate regime, thus likely satisfying International Monetary Fund requirements for a new and enlarged financing package. However, the deal in itself is unlikely to ensure a sustainable turnaround for Egypt’s economy and will need to be complemented by long-awaited structural reforms. Meanwhile, Egypt faces a potential humanitarian crisis on its border with Israel, for which it will seek further external support.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - FEBRUARY 2024

Wed, 28 February 2024

Hot on the heels of the latest COP28 in Dubai last year, we have launched a Climate Insight feature on our membership platform assessing the impact of climate change on country risk in Africa and the Middle East. In our first free-to-read briefing, we evaluate the effects of recent natural disasters, noting increased risks of food insecurity, water scarcity, and violence, alongside heightened challenges for businesses from environmental activism and litigation. Climate change-associated risks in Africa and the Middle East are projected to get worse over the coming years and will become an increasingly central part of our country risk forecasting to support our clients’ risk mitigation strategies.

CLIMATE INSIGHT: DISRUPTIVE WEATHER STRAINS WATER AND FOOD SECURITY IN AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST

Tue, 20 February 2024

In 2023, natural disasters, intensified by the El Niño phenomenon and unprecedented high temperatures, drastically impacted Africa and the Middle East. In Africa alone, disasters such as floods and droughts affected over 34 million people, causing widespread loss of life and damage. The MENA region faced its own challenges with severe heatwaves and acute water shortages, underscoring its susceptibility to the long-term impacts of climate change while depleting critical resources. The expected peak of El Niño in mid-2024 threatens to exacerbate these issues, potentially leading to increased food insecurity, further water scarcity, and intensified communal violence. At the same time, the increasing frequency of global environmental activism reflects growing public demand for action on climate change, raising targeted protests and litigation risks to high-emitting business sectors.

SAUDI ARABIA: AFRICAN MINING INVESTMENTS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY UNDERPIN ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION

Thu, 15 February 2024

In recent months, Saudi Arabia has markedly intensified its involvement in Africa by committing to investments exceeding USD 25 billion and establishing numerous economic cooperation agreements across essential sectors, including energy, transport, and health. Simultaneously, as the Gaza war intensifies, Saudi Arabia has leaned strongly on Iran to avoid escalating the conflict elsewhere in the Gulf, offering economic incentives for compliance. The Saudi economy is projected to experience a growth rate of approximately 2.6 percent in 2024, with the non-oil sector anticipated as the primary growth driver. Nevertheless, this outlook is subject to high levels of uncertainty, influenced by the volatile oil market, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and the impact of domestic reforms.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - JANUARY 2024

Wed, 31 January 2024

In 2024, Africa’s debt problem may finally be resolved… That will be the ambitious aspiration of many countries that are embracing fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and improved governance. Loan markets seem to partially agree with this hypothesis. Just a few weeks after Ethiopia chose to default on a Eurobond coupon payment, Côte d'Ivoire successfully raised USD 2.6 billion in a record-breaking international bonds issuance that drew interest from more than 400 investors. A few other sovereigns are expected to follow suit in coming months, but some debt distressed states will continue to pose severe risk of non-payment through 2024.

ANIMATED REPORT: AFRICA IN 2024 - IDENTIFYING MAJOR COUNTRY RISK TRENDS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND HOTSPOTS

Tue, 16 January 2024

Africa will again drive global economic growth in 2024, while boasting many exciting developments for trade and investment. But the continent also remains exceptionally vulnerable to global challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, forex shortages, and debt unaffordability, as well as conflict and political instability. Pangea-Risk publishes this animated special report, including infographics and bespoke videos, to showcase some of our key forecasts for the African continent in the year ahead.

MARITIME INSIGHT: US-LED AIRSTRIKES WILL NOT CURB HOUTHI THREAT IN RED SEA

Mon, 15 January 2024

The United States and its allies have executed airstrikes in Yemen on over 60 targets across 16 locations, encompassing weapons depots, air-surveillance facilities, and coastal radar systems. This operation signifies a notable tactical shift in the Red Sea region. Despite these measures, the impact of the US-led naval coalition, known as Operation Prosperity Guardian, in effectively deterring Houthi aggressions is expected to be limited. In the forthcoming two to three weeks, it is anticipated that Houthi attacks on vessels will persist, albeit potentially at a reduced rate and intensity, as the group reorganises and formulates its forthcoming strategies.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - DECEMBER 2023

Thu, 28 December 2023

In response to requests from some of our – very engaged – clients, we have added a new Maritime Insight feature to our country risk intelligence platform, covering security risks in the strategic waterways of Africa and the Middle East through which some 80 percent of the world’s seaborne cargo passes. The timing is critical as international warships deploy to the southern Red Sea to curb aerial attacks derived from Yemen and Iran, even while opportunistic Somali pirates re-emerge in the Gulf of Aden. If you are interested in supply chain, commodity trade, export finance, or risk insurance and corporate security, take a look at the below free-to-read Maritime Insight reports or watch the animated infographic.

MARITIME INSIGHT: RE-EMERGENCE OF SOMALI PIRACY DEEPENS MARITIME SECURITY WOES

Wed, 20 December 2023

The resurgence of Somali piracy amid ongoing attacks from Yemen, and subsequent rerouting of major shipping lines around Africa underscores a significant escalation in maritime security risks. The heightened threat, potentially linked to broader geopolitical tensions and exploitation of security vacuums, has major economic implications, seen in increased shipping costs and disrupted global supply chains. The international response, led by the US’s "Operation Prosperity Guardian," aims to counter these growing threats, with its effectiveness yet to be fully realised amidst concerns of potential escalation and the creation of new security gaps in critical maritime regions.

SPECIAL REPORT: GROWING SECURITY RISKS TO COMMERCIAL SHIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN RED SEA

Wed, 06 December 2023

The recent escalation of Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea, particularly targeting Israeli-linked vessels, marks a notable shift amid the ongoing war in Gaza. This change, evidenced by the use of advanced tactics like helicopter-borne attacks, indicates an evolution in Houthi capabilities and a potential shift away from traditional Iranian proxy strategies. As Houthi rebels continue to conduct attacks against Israeli-linked ships, the likelihood of retaliatory strikes by the United States and/or Israel is growing. Furthermore, these developments have led to increased maritime risks, resulting in heightened security measures and rising insurance costs, which are impacting commercial shipping operations.

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