SPECIAL REPORT: WHICH AFRICAN SOVEREIGNS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEFAULT?

   Tue, 10 May 2022

Based on quantitative analysis, large external borrowers Ghana, Kenya, and Ethiopia are most likely to default on their Eurobond repayments in the five-year outlook. In total, Africa needs to make USD 21.5 billion in external bond repayments over that period, while debt servicing costs are rising unsustainably. PANGEA-RISK assesses key indicators, including debt servicing and international bond maturities, to forecast Africa’s sovereign debt default risks over the next five years.