TOP RISKS FOR APRIL 2021

   Wed, 31 March 2021

The coming month is likely to see an intensification of militant activity in several areas, with an escalation in violence in north-eastern Nigeria and western Niger, and an attack in northern Ivory Coast signalling the resilience of regional insurgencies in the Sahel and Lake Chad regions. In Mozambique, militants conducted a major attack on an oil and gas sector hub in north-eastern Cabo Delgado province, dispelling claims that the insurgency is on the back foot. Election-related unrest will present a sustained threat in Chad, Benin, and Uganda, while worsening political and socio-economic issues will drive a heightened likelihood of demonstrations in Algeria, southern Iraq, Senegal, and Yemen. In Jordan, protests have erupted over the perceived mishandling of the COVID-19 crisis. Further COVID-19 restrictive measures in Kenya threaten to disrupt local travel and stimulate popular frustrations.