The coming month is likely to see an intensification of militant activity in several areas, with an escalation in violence in north-eastern Nigeria and western Niger, and an attack in northern Ivory Coast signalling the resilience of regional insurgencies in the Sahel and Lake Chad regions. In Mozambique, militants conducted a major attack on an oil and gas sector hub in north-eastern Cabo Delgado province, dispelling claims that the insurgency is on the back foot. Election-related unrest will present a sustained threat in Chad, Benin, and Uganda, while worsening political and socio-economic issues will drive a heightened likelihood of demonstrations in Algeria, southern Iraq, Senegal, and Yemen. In Jordan, protests have erupted over the perceived mishandling of the COVID-19 crisis. Further COVID-19 restrictive measures in Kenya threaten to disrupt local travel and stimulate popular frustrations.

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SEE COUNTRY OUTLOOK: ALGERIABENINCHADDJIBOUTIIRAQCOTE D’IVOIRE (IVORY COAST)JORDANKENYAMOZAMBIQUENIGERNIGERIASAUDI ARABIASENEGALYEMENUGANDA