TOP RISKS FOR NOVEMBER 2021

   Fri, 29 October 2021

The coming month will see an elevated threat of civil conflict after a spate of heavy fighting in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen, while further political violence and unrest will likely follow a military coup in Sudan. An impending Turkish offensive into northern Syria is likely to prompt an increase in cross-border artillery and rocket fire, while southern Saudi Arabia will remain vulnerable to cross-border drone attacks. A rare kidnapping in Mali’s Sikasso Region indicates a growing militant threat in the south, while recent cross-border militant attacks in southern Tanzania highlight the threat from insurgents in neighbouring Mozambique. In Uganda, a series of rare bombings in the capital indicate an underlying terrorism threat. Further incidents of civil unrest should be anticipated in the DRC, Eswatini, Morocco, Lebanon, while an ongoing truck drivers strike in South Africa threatens to disrupt major overland supply routes.

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